SCOT goes POP!
A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - voted one of Scotland's top 10 political websites.
Friday, April 26, 2024
Are we moving into the final days of Yousaf's leadership?
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Even on a non-binding vote, Yousaf's job would be on the line
OK, this is my fourth post of the day, but I'm having to do this just to keep up with the pace of events. Two things have changed since my last post - to my surprise, it turns out the Greens will vote in favour of the motion of no confidence, leaving Alba and Ash Regan holding the balance, and the vote will be a non-binding vote of no-confidence in Yousaf as First Minister rather than a binding vote of no-confidence in the government. Some people are interpreting the latter point as meaning that the whole process is a sham, and an indication that the Tories don't really want to bring the SNP government down, because an early election would cost the Tories themselves a lot of seats.
I don't think it's as simple as that. A non-binding motion is easier to vote for (which may be why the Greens signed up so quickly) but it's still very hard for Yousaf to ignore if it goes against him. In that event, there would be three possible outcomes -
1) Yousaf respects the vote and resigns as First Minister, but does not resign as SNP leader. This would almost certainly result in an early election, because the SNP would presumably not be willing to nominate an alternative First Minister, and no unionist government would be arithmetically viable.
2) Yousaf respects the vote and resigns as both First Minister and SNP leader. This would be a highly desirable outcome from the point of view of the independence movement, because it would allow a more popular and credible SNP leader to become First Minister without an early election being held. If we could be sure this is what would happen, it would make sense for Ash Regan to vote for the motion of no confidence.
3) Yousaf refuses to respect the vote and tries to stay in office. The opposition parties wouldn't be able to leave it at that, because he would be defying the will of parliament. A binding vote of no-confidence in the government would surely follow swiftly - even if the Tories ran away from it for self-preservation reasons, Labour and the Lib Dems would step into the breach and the Tories would look ridiculous if they abstained. The Greens might turn the screw by saying they'll have no choice but to vote for the motion unless Yousaf stands aside to allow fresh leadership to take over - at which point he probably would.
So whichever way you look at it, the outcome of the vote next week (assuming it's held) does matter enormously.
Now that Alba have gained the balance of power, they'd probably be unwise to throw that enviable position away the very next week by forcing an immediate election
Humza Yousaf has just handed Ash Regan the balance of power in the Scottish Parliament - at least some of the time
The Bute House Agreement was not signed until August 2021, which meant that for three months after the May 2021 election, the SNP continued with what was billed as a "minority government". That was technically inaccurate language, because excluding the non-voting Presiding Officer, there were 64 SNP MSPs and 64 MSPs from all other parties combined. It was therefore impossible to bring down the government as long as all of the SNP MSPs turned up. A tied vote on a motion of no-confidence would simply have led to the Presiding Officer using her casting vote to defeat the motion, in line with convention.
However by breaking off the Bute House Agreement today, Yousaf is not reverting to that status quo ante, and the reason is Ash Regan's defection last autumn from the SNP to Alba. There are now five opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament, and they outnumber the SNP by 65 seats to 63. So in theory the government can be brought down, but in practice I struggle to imagine the Greens risking the wrath of the independence movement by "doing a 1979" by bringing about an election at such an unfavourable moment.
However, the Greens now seem to hate Yousaf's guts far more than Alba do, which would have seemed an impossible state of affairs only yesterday. It seems almost inevitable, then, that they will find specific issues on which to vote with the unionist parties on, and the only way in which Yousaf will avoid defeat is with Ash Regan's vote. (Remember the convention on how the Presiding Officer breaks a tie will not always work in the government's favour - it's about backing whatever is the status quo, not about automatically backing the government line.)
This is, then, kind of the arithmetical scenario Alba were looking for when they stood on the list in 2021, and it should give them some limited leverage with the government, albeit any informal deals will have to be done on the quiet given the antipathy between the SNP and Alba. And if by any chance the Greens are crazy enough and angry enough to try to force an early election, it will be entirely up to Ash Regan and Alba to decide whether that happens. Right now might not be the ideal moment for the early plebiscite election we all want, but that doesn't necessarily mean the ideal moment won't arrive before 2026.
Current state of the parties:
Why has the coalition been ditched, and what now?
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
No, Sarwar does not lead Yousaf on "best First Minister" polling - that was last month
Sunday, April 21, 2024
The case against a small political party treating its own members as the enemy
Saturday, April 20, 2024
On the whole, it would be a relief if the Greens withdraw from the coalition
Friday, April 19, 2024
The Murrell development is no cause for celebration - but there may be a silver lining
Scotland's "pro-independence" politics blogs the day after the former CEO of the SNP is charged with robbing the party of a £600,000 indyref campaign fund:
— Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) April 19, 2024
1x "Westminster bad!"
2x "Please give us money!"
1x "Bradford gangs and Thames Water!" 😳🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/LnS92YM8IV
I know from long experience that his fan club will defend Mr Campbell almost regardless of circumstance, but I trust they won't on this occasion, because leaving aside the unprovoked nature of the attack, it's also mind-bogglingly hypocritical, nonsensical and illogical. Let's start with the hypocritical: "please give us money!" Seriously, Stu? Would this be the same man who has solicited many hundreds of thousands of pounds from his readers, possibly even more than a million pounds over a ten year period, and including a five-figure sum only a few weeks ago? I certainly don't criticise him for that, because I know as well anyone that regular, lengthy writing requires funding to be sustainable, but would it be too much to request a touch of consistency from him here? Or is it fine when he does it, and somehow reprehensible when it's anybody else? (And would it be unkind of me to point out that a large proportion of what he's raised disappeared into the bottomless pit of his counterproductive vanity legal action against Kezia Dugdale? He also threatened legal action against me a few years ago - if he had proceeded with that stunt, would crowdfunded money have paid for it?)
Also hypocritical: the inverted commas around the words "pro-independence" when referring to Bella Caledonia, Wee Ginger Dug and Scot Goes Pop. I've had my disputes with Mike Small and Paul Kavanagh, but I don't think I would ever doubt their belief in independence, especially not Paul's. Whereas Mr Campbell has openly declared that he will vote Tory at the general election and would abstain in any independence referendum held in the foreseeable future. I know which blog warrants the inverted commas.
The nonsensical part is criticising me for a blogpost I wrote and published several hours before the news about Peter Murrell broke. Was I supposed to have premonitory knowledge of what was about to happen?
And the illogical part is lumping me in with Bella, John Robertson and WGD as if I'm some sort of SNP leadership loyalist blogger who is trying to hush up the news. As previously stated, when I heard about Murrell, I was at the AGM of the Alba North Lanarkshire LACU, where I was elected the LACU's Organiser. Is Mr Campbell similarly active in a non-SNP, pro-indy party? No I don't suppose he is.
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